As numerous media outlets have reported a collapse in buying interest following the Brexit victory in the EU referendum, will Brexit be a blessing or curse for renters?
Despite the pessimism of most young people who voted to remain in the EU in June, there have been some suggestions that Brexit may be good for British renters.
Whether brexit is good or bad for renters depends fundamentally on whether house prices fall relative to the earnings of renters.
Following the referendum result, Zoopla predicted that house prices may fall up to eighteen per cent. KPMG envisages a more modest decline of 5 per cent with London hit harder than the rest of the country. Both cite possible limited future access to the European market which might make British property less attractive to overseas buyers. Others speculate that there will be no house price fall since demand has far outstripped supply over the past few decades. However one ought to bear in mind that over optimism in the Housing market is a constant feature of house price predictions in the UK. Few for example predicted the 2007 sub-prime mortgage crisis and subsequent recession.
The devaluation of sterling might also offset any reduction in the attractiveness of UK property due to exclusion from the single market for international investors.
On the side of earnings; before the referendum, the Treasury warned that Brexit would cut economic growth by 3% to 6%. The TUC also warned that leaving the EU could reduce average earnings by £1976 per year by 2030. However, it is still too early to say whether wage decreases offset house price falls.
Fundamentally the most important cause of Britain’s housing crisis is British government policy, not international investors or the EU. The remedy, liberalization of planning laws and regulation of the letting sector, is opposed by most English and Welsh MPs. It is therefore unlikely that Britain’s decision to leave the EU will improve or worsen the lot of private sector renters.